I’m keeping my fingers crossed that we don’t have another winter like last year. The persistent snow and ice led to me having to cancel quite few lessons.
But – just like every year – the media is intent on talking things up into a crisis.
This story from the Telegraph today says that Met Office data indicate a milder than usual winter is on the way, although both it and the Met Office point out clearly that long terms forecasts are no longer given (mainly because of the “barbecue summer” forecast where B&Q had to start selling diy Ark kits so people could get about).
That’s not good enough for the Telegraph, though. It had to rake in some people from the Association of Village Idiots – no doubt specially selected for their alternative vibes about the forthcoming winter.
Now, it’s worth pointing out again that the Met Office no longer does long-range forecast. The Telegraph story says so, and the Met Office says so. In fact, the Met Office has just sent out an email alert which says:
Following public research, the Met Office no longer issues long-range forecasts for the general public; instead we provide a monthly outlook on our website.
Despite this, you may have seen some reports in the media on Thursday, suggesting the Met Office has produced a forecast for the coming winter.
These media reports have based their interpretation for the coming winter on probability maps on our website. However, they have been selective about the information they have used and you should not take these interpretations as a guide to the coming winter. Instead we would recommend using our monthly outlook and short range forecasts.
But this doesn’t stop one Village Idiot declaiming:
“It baffles me how the Met Office can predict a milder-than-average winter when all the indicators show this winter will have parallels to the last one,” he said.
“The Met Office is standing alone here, as ourselves and other independent forecasters are all predicting a colder-than-average winter.”
Personally, I just have a horrible feeling that we’ll get another bad winter. I don’t care about the temperature, but I do care about snowfall.
It has been quite wet recently. I don’t care how “dry” it has been statistically, I know how “wet” it is now (it’s raining as I speak). They’ve already had snow in Scotland, and although the temperature outside today is around 13°C, only two days ago it was as low as -5°C and I was getting ice off the car before starting work two mornings running. But when it is cold, rain can fall as snow.
Fingers crossed.