A Drop In Prospective ADIs?

I noticed someone was saying that there has been a “huge” drop in the number of people training to become ADIs.

Using the DSA’s new published statistics, the following can be gleaned from the number of people taking Part 2 tests:

So, it would appear that the number was relatively flat between 2007 and 2010, but showed a drop of about 4,000 last year. However, it should be noted that the number of those passing the test only fell by about 2,000 between last year and the previous period (i.e. the success rate appears to be increasing).

For Part 3, there are only data available for the last two years:

Here, there is a yearly difference of about 1,200 – but the total number of passes only fell by 344 – or around 3.5% from the previous period. You could argue that a greater percentage of people passing Part 2 ended up passing Part 3 last year, since the difference between Part 2 and Part 3 is much smaller for last year than it is for the previous year (i.e greater success rate). But there is insufficient data to conclude this with any certainty (it’s probably a contributory factor). In any case, the pass rate from the DSA data is flat.

The previous years were those covered by the “earn £30k, no qualifications needed” adverts. Last year was free of that, so it is also likely that the quality of those embarking upon training is now improving – hence the greater success rates if you look at the data overall.

When you also consider that 2011 was a terrible year as far as the economy was concerned, I don’t think you can say anything other than people were being careful how they spent their money.

And the other thing to remember is that – just like share prices – a fall is often followed by a rise. It might not be this year, as the fall in Part 2 tests is carried forward, but it’s pretty certain that there will be one at some stage.