Category - ADI

And On The Subject Of Weather Forecasting…

Wet Seaweed for weather forecasting?I’d forgotten this, but last June someone was predicting the “worst winter on record” for 2011/12. I poo-pooed it as bunkum, simply because no one can predict the weather properly. If the Met Office, with its array of supercomputers can’t do it, a bunch of geeky old guys with seaweed and distorted egos certainly can’t.

My opinions upset a few people. I was getting what amounted to hate mail from people defending Exacta – the organisation behind the original forecast.

Well, all you have to do is look at the official statistics for last winter.

December, January, and February temperatures were all well above their respective means, and the whole winter was a mean 4.5°C warmer than the previous three winters, and nearly 1°C warmer than the mean 1971-2000 figure . There was a two-week cold snap at the end of January. Rainfall was 99% of the 1971-2000 average, and sunshine was 113% of the average. It was classed as a mild winter.

So, I rest my case. The story from last June was nonsensical scaremongering, fed by alchemy and pseudo-science.

Winter 2011/12 was NOT the coldest on record. Not by a million pieces of wet seaweed! Just like I predicted.

Summertime Blues

Sunny WeatherWell, it’s started.

I dislike the hot weather at the best of times – I much prefer it to be cooler – but I know I am in a minority on that score.

I don’t normally get many pupils cancelling (you get minor epidemics of it a few times a year), but since the sun came out – in other words, over the last three days – I have had at least six “mix-ups”, “illnesses”, and simple “won’t be here” messages.

I wonder what would happen if I texted them the day before their tests and told them I’d got my diary mixed up, was unwell, or simply wasn’t going to be there?

Well, I’ll be reading the riot act a few times over the next week. I only let them get away with it once or twice, then they’ll find themselves looking for a new instructor.

It wouldn’t be so bad if they told the truth, but I know bloody well why they cancelled – they’re going to an impromptu barbecue or other sun-related event that most people in this country flock to zombie-like as soon as it gets a bit warm. And it becomes self-fuelling – I’m just waiting for the sunburn and food poisoning excuses to come out next week.

Incidentally, that isn’t a real forecast in the picture – I just made it look wall-to-wall sunny. In any case, AccuWeather is as reliable as holding your finger in the air to decide what it’s going to be doing tomorrow. In fact, the most accurate thing AccuWeather does is tell you what the weather is doing 10 minutes after it’s done it. Anything on the future timeline simply changes to match the recent past once it arrives.

How To Get To Colwick MPTC

Someone found the blog on that search term, so here’s where the MPTC at Colwick is located.

First of all, anyone else looking for a test centre can search for it on the DVSA’s website using this link. You type in your own postcode or the town you’re interested in and the nearest test centres are given.

Colwick MPTC comes up as Private Road No. 5 on the Colwick Industrial Estate, with a postcode of NG4 2JU. The Google Maps link will allow you to navigate, but here’s a snapshot of the test centre location:

Colwick MPTC on Google Maps

The industrial estate is just off the A612 Colwick Loop Road. You can join Private Road No. 2 (which starts off as Mile End Road) either at the Colwick traffic lights or the Netherfield ones (near the big, cylindrical fuel storage tanks). The test centre is right at the end of Private Road No. 5 on the left – it’s a really grotty road, with what appear to be scrap yards all around and frequent fly-tipping.

Accidents During Driving Tests

A story from Scotland culled from another pointless FOI request reveals the staggering figure of 46 accidents involving learners on test since 2008.

Simple arithmetic doesn’t seem to be the strongpoint of the author, who wants to make a big deal out of the fact, in spite of it only equating to 10 accidents a year. Considering that there are in the region of a quarter of a million tests or more conducted in Scotland annually, it means nothing.

The FOI data don’t identify WHO was to blame for the accidents, either.

Making matters worse is some jackass from one of the “associations” who reckons that a learner making a mistake isn’t ready for test. That’s bullshit! And so is this nonsense about the word “accident” – three little syllables convey all the necessary meaning in any normal conversation. It doesn’t need some pseudo-academic trying to enlighten us to imagined philosophical connotations of the word.

Without knowing the specific details of each accident – and even insurance companies and the police often never get to the bottom of that – you cannot automatically blame the learner for any they might be involved in. Accidents DO happen – and they happen to innocent parties.

At least someone at the DSA has got their finger on the pulse (instead of up their backsides):

…thankfully accidents on test are extremely rare.

Precisely.

Even big-nuts advanced drivers who are mouthpieces for some of the organisations were not perfect when they first passed their tests. They continued to learn once they got their passes. It’s always been like that… and it always will.

Multitasking

I saw some interesting comments recently which claimed that people can “do two totally different tasks at once”. It was part of a discussion about teaching techniques (as usual, the DSA was cast in the role of villain by one of them, but that’s another story).

MultitaskingWhen I’m teaching pupils, and particularly at the beginning of their training, absolutely the worst thing they can try to do is more than one thing at once. That’s because no one can do two or more things simultaneously – it just looks like they can once they become better at certain aspects of driving.

People mistakenly believe that “multitasking” means doing different things at the same time. When you analyse any such situation, it doesn’t mean that at all.

A good example is computer multitasking. Admittedly, with modern multi-core processors it IS possible for computers to perform tasks simultaneously – because the cores can behave as separate computers. However, the original multitasking approach was that the CPU would time-share and would cycle through various tasks a bit at a time. It did it quickly and efficiently, so that over a typical period of a few seconds it would appear to have simultaneously carried out several major tasks to completion. But in reality it had done them in small steps, dovetailing each step from one task with those from other tasks, creating an impression of having done several things at once.

Mind you, computers don’t have to think about what to do or how to do it. Humans – particularly new drivers – do. So when a pupil is steering round a corner, then decides to try to change gear or cancel the indicator, something usually has to give – and the steering is usually it!

This is one reason why novices often steer badly on bends and corners – they are trying to do several things simultaneously when they can’t yet do any of them properly! I often find that those who have simply been allowed to “drive” without any proper tuition or correction are the worst ones for it, and the longer they’ve been allowed to get away with it the harder it can be to break them of the habit.

This issue of multitasking comes into play when teaching manoeuvres, for example. Think of the stages involved in the first part of a turn in the road:

  • select gear
  • gas/bite
  • check it’s safe
  • respond if it isn’t
  • handbrake off
  • control speed
  • full lock
  • check it’s still safe
  • respond appropriately
  • watch the kerb
  • control speed
  • straighten and stop
  • handbrake
  • select reverse

Many pupils will start overlapping these when they first try it, and as soon as they take the handbrake off, if they move too fast they simply stop steering. Likewise when they look around, if they’re still steering at the time their hands just freeze.

I do a simple demonstration using a pen. I start the car moving slowly, pick up a pen, then do various things like removing the cap, replacing it, putting it on the dashboard, reading the writing on it, etc. All the time the car is moving at an absolute crawl.

Then I get the pupil to do it. Usually, the car speeds up and they can’t manipulate the pen.

I then explain how I am cheating. Whereas they are trying to control the car and the pen at the same time, what I do is as follows:

  • set the speed
  • pick up the pen
  • control the speed
  • remove the cap
  • control the speed
  • put the cap back on
  • control the speed
  • read some text
  • control the speed
  • put the pen on the dash
  • control the speed
  • and so on

This is proper multitasking, the way humans have to do it. It also illustrates why the MSM routine has to be done in plenty of time in order to prevent a new driver from changing gear when they should be concentrating on steering, or from looking in the mirrors when they should be slowing down.

Of course, as people get better some things can be done without thinking (cancelling indicators, for example). But while such things need conscious thought it is vital to keep them separate – particularly since the indicators are self-cancelling, and avoiding collisions is of much higher priority than unnecessarily cancelling a signal.

Multitasking in humans is an illusion created by doing single small tasks – each part of larger, more complex tasks – in an efficiently structured way. MSM is a prime example.

What is interesting is how you can see this potential for multitasking confusion spill over with certain pupils. You occasionally get one whose brain seems to be on fire, and the simple act of changing gear can result in attempts to signal, pull on the handbrake, reach for things which aren’t there, and so on. They’re all different, and finding ways to deal with the problem is what makes this job so interesting.

Another interesting aspect is how the old adage about women being better at multitasking doesn’t apply to driving in this respect. Women are better at juggling many things in their heads, whereas men tend to want to focus on single tasks. It’s why women can often be frustrating to men when they keep changing subjects, for example. In driving, everyone has the same problems with multitasking, with some – from both sexes – handling it better than others.

Jumping between tasks without completing the previous one can be a hindrance. Perhaps this is partly why men tend to pass in fewer lessons and have higher pass rates in the driving test.

DSA Alert: Rules For Cyclists

The DSA has come up trumps with this reminder to cyclists about how THEY should behave on the roads.

Rule 66

You should

  • keep both hands on the handlebars except when signalling or changing gear
  • keep both feet on the pedals
  • never ride more than two abreast, and ride in single file on narrow or busy roads and when riding round bends
  • not ride close behind another vehicle
  • not carry anything which will affect your balance or may get tangled up with your wheels or chain
  • be considerate of other road users, particularly blind and partially sighted pedestrians. Let them know you are there when necessary, for example, by ringing your bell if you have one. It is recommended that a bell be fitted

Read all the rules for cyclists (59-82)

It’s almost laughable in some respects. You could probably count on the fingers of one hand the number of cyclists who are even aware that there are rules they’re supposed to follow, let alone be prepared to abide by them.

The Spandex boys – the ones who think they’re athletes, but aren’t – are the worst offenders. This year already seems much worse than usual. The Olympics has got them all worked up, I guess.

Reference Points Revisited

I mentioned these a few months ago, but I saw something this week that made me smile.

Mirrors Here signReference points – when established BY the driver FOR the driver – can be very useful. In fact, everyone uses them one way or another no matter how much they might try to deny it.

But I had to laugh the other day when I saw this on someone’s fence when I was on my way to pick a pupil up for a lesson.

From what I can gather, the lady’s husband put it there so that she doesn’t reverse into the garage when she parks on their driveway.

On the one hand, it is a good idea. But it could fail when you consider what might happen if the driver were to drive into her driveway forwards. It would need another sign to cover that eventuality.

And it still doesn’t allow for the different seating positions of a 5’ female compared with a 6’ 3” man, or the variation that would be introduced by distance from the fence.

As long as the stopping position wasn’t right up to the garage door then they’d probably get away with it, but it does illustrate the dangers of over-egging the reference point concept.

To be honest, all the husband had to do was put a small mark on the fence and say “don’t go further back than this”. But I have to admire his more literary approach to the situation.

DSA Alert: Roundabouts

Another one of the DSA’s timely reminders about parts of the Highway Code, this time concerning roundabouts.

Rule 186

Signals and position

When taking the first exit to the left, unless signs or markings indicate otherwise

  • signal left and approach in the left-hand lane
  • keep to the left on the roundabout and continue signalling left to leave

When taking an exit to the right or going full circle, unless signs or markings indicate otherwise

  • signal right and approach in the right-hand lane
  • keep to the right on the roundabout until you need to change lanes to exit the roundabout
  • signal left after you have passed the exit before the one you want

When taking any intermediate exit, unless signs or markings indicate otherwise

  • select the appropriate lane on approach to the roundabout
  • you should not normally need to signal on approach
  • stay in this lane until you need to alter course to exit the roundabout
  • signal left after you have passed the exit before the one you want

When there are more than three lanes at the entrance to a roundabout, use the most appropriate lane on approach and through it.

Read all the rules about roundabouts (184-190)

As I’ve mentioned previously, it’s a great idea to circulate this kind of information. Whether it works or not is another matter entirely – the understanding of roundabouts among the general public (including many of those who think they’re “advanced” drivers and can therefore drive around them any way they feel like) is appalling.

Also, don’t forget my own articles on roundabouts here and here.

DSA Alert: Examiner Strike May 2012

An email alert from the DSA advises people who have their tests booked May 10 to attend as normal.

PCS – the union involved – is obviously still determined to show the public what a bunch of prats it really is, whilst remaining under the impression that people are still mentally stuck in the Dark Ages with it, and are actually impressed by the idea of a strike.

As I’ve said before, not all examiners are in the union, and not all those who are get involved in strike action anyway.

If you’re worried, rearrange your test.

Why are the DSA on strike on May 10?

It isn’t specifically the DSA who are striking. It is various government bodies who are refusing to accept the government’s pension offer. Pensions are the latest tool in the armoury of those who prefer striking to working for a living.

The union involved claims it wants the government to “come to the negotiating table”. In plain English, this just means that they will not be happy until they get exactly what THEY want.

It isn’t just PCS either. The police are complaining about their pensions and are organising demonstrations. Unions involved cover the civil service, universities, schools, colleges, and the NHS.

The government has already made improved offers as a result of last year’s strikes, but as the union says, “these are not enough”. They demand a “fair settlement”. As I say, this amounts to EVERYTHING they are demanding, and nothing less will do.

Don’t forget that the tanker drivers are complaining about similar issues, which prompted the panic buying fiasco a few weeks ago. Pensions is the current hot topic.