Category - News

How To Mangle Statistics

The Boston Standard reports that the borough’s young drivers face “one of the highest risks of being injured in car crashes in the country”.

ChavsLet’s just get things straight here. The figures do not mean that your chances of having an accident increase just by moving to Boston – it’s the higher proportion of teenagers brought up there only having a single helix in their DNA that is to blame.

Yet again, the real problem is being shoved under the carpet. The reason Boston teenagers are having more accidents is that they are bigger prats than in other places. Someone needs to be dealing with that – not trying to blame it on statistics that they don’t really understand.

“Experts” are trying to suggest that poor public transport and long distances from home to school are to blame. But this argument is based on totally separate “statistics” designed to dumb things down. It would appear that if you live in Boston, it’s a 3 mile round trip even to go to the toilet, and you need a passport to go to school because you have to move through several international borders!

Let’s do what the Boston Standard didn’t do, and actually read the report, which you can access here.

Instead of adopting the Boston Standard’s selective and scaremongering approach, lets list ALL the factors the report identified.

Analysis has identified a number of common factors present in young driver collisions, including the following:

  • They tend to drive older cars with less crash protection
  • There are often three or more casualties in their collisions
  • Their collisions often occur at night and at weekends
  • Their collisions often occur on wet roads
  • Their collisions often occur on minor roads in rural areas with a 60mph speed limit
  • Their collisions are often single vehicle so involve no other road user
  • They often occur on bends, particularly on rural roads
  • Their vehicle often skids, and in some cases then overturns
  • Their vehicle often leaves the road, and in many cases hits a roadside object or enters a ditch

Summarising, you can say that young drivers drive bangers filled with their mates, and mostly at night (a progression from arseing about on skateboards and BMX bikes outside the chippie). Since they’re usually travelling at speed, their accidents occur on wet roads and bends – particularly on roads where it is possible to put your foot down – which results in the car skidding and overturning, and often hitting objects off the road (i.e. trees and posts).

The Boston Standard appears to have only seen the one about rural roads and taken it out of context with the others.

The report notes:

Nationally, the research found that young drivers who are from rural areas are significantly overrepresented within the collision statistics compared to their urban counterparts.

So, young drivers in rural areas DO have more accidents overall. When you look at the report’s bar chart for the three areas it has identified – urban, town, and rural – you see that there is a progression from the first category up to the third. Basically, in places where you can’t drive fast, you stand less chance of hurting yourself than you do in places where you CAN drive fast. It’s bloody obvious.

The report further discovers that there is no difference between the different areas for drivers 30 and over. Tellingly, it uses the term “mature adults”. Now we’re getting to the nitty-gritty of the cause.

The report then adds:

It would therefore suggest that rural roads themselves are not responsible for the increased collision involvement of rural young drivers.

The Boston Standard and it’s “experts” are talking rubbish, then, when they try to sweep the problem under the rug.

The report continues:

There is very little difference between young and older drivers for the speed limit of the road on which they were involved in collisions.

Quite. It is inappropriate speed that is the issue. Inappropriate for the situation, and inappropriate for the driver’s skills (or lack thereof).

The report says:

The mileage data shows that rural residents have 31% higher annual average mileage than their urban counterparts. For adult drivers, this does not lead to a higher collision risk… Young rural drivers, however, are 37% more likely to be involved in a collision than urban young drivers.

This is just stating the obvious. The longer you’re in the car driving it, the more likely you are to have an accident if you’re already in a higher risk group.

But what shoots all of this out of the water is the risk map included in the report. Some of the most rural areas – and ones with the most winding and out-of-the-way roads – such as ALL of Scotland, and large parts of the northern areas have risk indices that are around the the norm (100). The peaks correspond generally to very specific areas of well-known idiot-country. The lowest indices relate to exclusively urban areas – the report makes that clear,

The report concludes that younger drivers are at risk, particularly on rural roads. That has been known for years. The report also concludes that it isn’t the roads themselves that are the problem. It is specifically younger drivers, for whom the risks increase the more rural their driving areas are. It states clearly:

…this would imply that there is something about rurality and young drivers (through inexperience and/or attitude) that leads to increased collision risk.

THIS IS PRECISELY THE PROBLEM.

It must be obvious that since you cannot create experience out of nothing, then care is needed while it is being acquired. Young drivers simply do not exercise care – they have appalling attitudes on the road. And they are clearly less likely to do so in certain areas – Boston might have come out in the top risk group, but there are plenty of considerably more rural locations which didn’t.

Looking at my own region, I note that Mansfield and Bassetlaw feature well above the norm. And yet Nottingham – which I can assure you has it’s fair share of complete prats – is right down at the bottom (i.e. the good) end. The numbers don’t seem to prove anything when you consider that detail.

Safer Driving? Are You Sure?

This story is a little confusing if you read into it . It says that there is a scheme – The Blue Lamp Trust – running in Basingstoke aimed at improving the driving standards of company car drivers. That’s not a bad thing at all.

But the story’s author says clearly that when he went to take an assessment, the trainer immediately discovered that his driving licence was out of date – it had, in fact, expired the previous May. The article says:

The lesson started badly. A quick inspection of my driving licence revealed it expired in May, something I had been blissfully unaware of.

But then it goes on to report how the author got on on his assessment. It makes no mention of any delay while the licence was updated. The author explains how he subsequently “passed” the assessment. It is clear that the assessment went ahead in spite of the driver having no valid driver’s licence.

It raises a few questions, not least the one about what law allows you to drive on the roads if you don’t have a licence. One that expired almost a year ago is not valid.

Another question is how can someone who hasn’t got one, and who wasn’t aware of the fact his had expired, pass an assessment which by definition would require the person being assessed to know about this and deal with it?

Naturally, that then raises questions about the administration of the scheme (registered as a charity, it appears).

100-Year Old Still Driving

You can look at this story from two sides. One side – the cosy, mumsy side – makes you think “ahhh! That’s sweet”.

The other side – the one involving cold logic – makes you say “but she’s 100 years old!”

The lady in question, Susie Dixon, never had to take a driving test. Back when she was a girl there was no such thing as the driving test. But that’s not really relevant. Neither is the fact that she has never had an accident in all her time on the road.

The simple fact is, she’s a 100-year old person who, it can be guaranteed, will never be a 150-year old person. No matter how healthy she is for a 100-year old, she could just die or have her health deteriorate at any time, just like that. That starts to become a significant risk above 60 years, and it gets worse the older you get.

Miss Dixon has been given another 3 years before she needs another health check-up.

The way her family gush over how she can still remember things from when they were kids hints strongly at there being certain “little old lady” traits that aren’t being mentioned.

One son said: “She is fantastic for her age”.

Yes. She is certainly in a tiny, tiny minority. Most people her age cannot drive safely. No mention is made of how she drives – other than that she’s never had an accident.

Agent Smartphone

SmartphoneThis is an interesting story. Aviva, the insurance group, is trialling software that runs on your smartphone and which records how carefully you’re driving.

I’m sure it won’t be everyone’s cup of tea. After all, having this software running is likely to slow down the phone, making texting that little bit more difficult.

Seriously, though, the kind of people who it’s aimed at – the ones who ought to be permanently tagged for the whole of their lives – are unlikely to take the option.

The idea is not that much different to the smartbox technology being used by other insurers – except that it is likely to be much cheaper to implement, and (unless they have very strict rules about its recording patterns) much easier to switch off or bypass for that crucial pratmobile meet at McDonalds on Sunday night.

Have people never heard of having two pay-as-you-go phones?

Toffee-nosed Tosser?

An ex-public schoolboy – William Colebrook, 23 – has been arrested for driving at 113mph in a 50mph zone in Switzerland. He was taking part in an exclusive “rally” from Mayfair, London, to Verbier in the Swiss Alps.

He was driving an Audi R8, valued at £157,000. Entry to the “rally” is by invitation only, and costs £2,250 per head.

He demonstrated his maturity over the matter by tweeting:

Being delivered to the #DodgeballRally finish line by police car is pretty badass. Having to fly home is not…

I wonder what mummy and daddy think of him? I wonder if they care?

Cool dude, eh? In reality, an utter prick.

Autoglass Job Losses – 2012 Update

This is an old story. As of December 2014 I cannot find any further updates, although the story is currently receiving quite a few hits.


Windscreen CrackLast year, Autoglass announced that it was shedding 400 jobs. A reader also furnished me with some additional information.

It has been very quiet in the intervening 9 months, but the dramatic increase in the numbers of people finding the blog on terms involving “Autoglass” made me suspect something was afoot. And here is the news story that proves it (link now dead).

It’s worth a reminder that Autoglass announced last June that it was to shed 10% (400) of its workforce because people apparently were driving more carefully and not breaking as many windscreens.

This latest story says that Autoglass is beginning a “consultation period” with staff after announcing a reduction in contact centres and branches. These closures have apparently been briefed to staff as “operational changes” (that gives me flashbacks again to when I worked in the rat race). I like how it says this is to “improve efficiency” – last year, it was because no one was breaking windscreens!

In short, Autoglass has got to make people redundant because it is losing money – you can’t dress it up any more than that.

Another surprise is that whereas the original story mentioned 400 jobs, this latest one involves 52 call centre staff and the closure of 16 branches, involving a further 500 staff. That second figure was not provided by the official Autoglass spokeswoman, but “a source”.

So, not 400 but over 550 staff look set to lose their jobs.

To be honest, when you read this latest story, it bears almost no resemblance to the one from last summer. It’s hard to believe the redundancies are part of the same issue.

Good luck to all those involved.

Useless And Inaccurate Award

I don’t want to take too much away from the driving school involved, but I find it hard to believe that a small firm in Bristol can be reliably considered as “third best driving school in the UK”.

Apparently, “tens of thousands” of people voted across the country (which has a population of 62 million), so even if those tens of thousands amounted to 99,999, they still only represent 0.16% of the population. I suspect we’re talking about the lower “tens” here, even so.

These opinion-based polls are notoriously unreliable and horrendously misleading – every year, the media ask people to vote for the Best Band Ever In All Recorded History, and you can guarantee that the worst pop and rap claptrap from the previous year comes up trumps. That’s purely down to the kind of people who vote.

Good luck to the school involved. It’s a nice certificate to have.

But I wouldn’t put too much emphasis on “third best in the UK”. That’s absolute nonsense, and would require every learner in the country from the last 5 years to vote for it to be even close to having any validity.

It’ll be interesting to see if any of the other local amateur newspapers jump on the first and second placed driving schools when they find out who they are.

Annual Statement Of The Bleeding Obvious – Contender #1

When I read this report, which says that using a smartphone while driving can be more The Bleeding Obvious Awards 2012dangerous than drinking alcohol or using cannabis, I slapped my head and thought what a fool I’d been for not realising this for myself after all these years.

Not.

Apparently, it needed “research” by some comedians calling themselves the Institute of Advanced Motorists (IAM) in order for this hitherto “unknown” fact to come to light.

I wish they’d stop calling these things “studies” and “research”. They are neither – not by a long way. It’s just some old geezer with absolutely nothing better to do stating the bloody obvious after reading something in Time, Readers Digest, or Saga Magazine.

THEY might not have known it, but I would imagine that most of the higher primates did. Jeez, even my cat knew.

What makes it worse is that the Americans have been having hysterics over this very subject for the past 12 months, and have done most of the “research” themselves (it’s not so bad when Americans do it, because it’s only what you’d expect), so the IAM can hardly claim to have “discovered” anything.

Yes, arseing about with your radio, mobile phone, music collection, laptop, TV, toaster, microwave oven, building Lego models, solving the Rubik’s Cube, or any other activity which takes your attention off the road is dangerous and stupid. It always has been, and always will be.

It’s like saying that you mustn’t put your hand in a running Flymo – but only after “research” – and then pretending no one knew up until then that it was stupid and dangerous.

This is currently top contender for the 2012 Statement Of The Bleeding Obvious awards.

THINK! Biker

An email alert from the DSA mentions a £1.2m ad campaign by THINK! urging people to think and take care around motorcyclists.

Motorcyclists doing what you have a motorbike for in the first placeOne very important piece of missing advice is that motorcyclists also ought to take care and think – they’re often not entirely blameless for the scrapes they get into.

Weaving in an out of cars at traffic lights, almost invariably going either too fast for the conditions or speed limit, accelerating “just because you can”, and so on when you’re already a very fragile moving target isn’t the most intelligent way of behaving.

I am 100% behind the idea of motorists – or anyone on the roads – taking care around motorcyclists. I mean, I wouldn’t like to prang one, even if it wasn’t my fault.

However, I am not convinced that motorists should continue to be forced to shoulder quite so much of the responsibility. It is all too often the stupidity of the motorcyclist that’s the real underlying problem.

Perhaps THINK! should “think” about dealing with the problem at source, rather than keep trying to patch things up elsewhere?

Driving Instructor Fined – But Gets Off

From the Bournemouth Daily Echo via the newsfeeds, a driving instructor was “stunned” to get a £70 fine after his pupil stopped on the reverse round a corner exercise to let a car pass. The car turned out to be a Poole Council Camera Car.

Catalina DriveThe instructor claims his pupil was acting properly – and on the surface of it, that seems to be the case. However, the council mentions a bus stop in its version.

If you look up the road that the instructor was using via Google (Catalina Drive), you can clearly see that just in front of the corner apparently being used there IS indeed a bus stop (and yellow lines all around the bend). It would be necessary for the car to stop inside this bus stop bay in order to commence the manoeuvre – quite a long way inside if the manoeuvre was being done in usual learner fashion (i.e. 2-3 car lengths ahead of the bend).

Poole Council’s website – specifically its guidelines about issuing PCNs (penalty charge notices) – say:

CONTRAVENTION CODE: 47

Stopped on a restricted bus stop or stand

This code is used when a vehicle other than a bus parks in a restricted bus
stop. Only buses may stop in the marked area.

Coaches may also stop to pick up and set down passengers but not to park
awaiting passengers.

No loading/unloading is permitted.

The instructor in question can argue all he likes, and claim to know all the rules (which is exactly what he does), but the council’s rule is quite clear. If you stop in a bus stop area you are liable for a fine.

He is lucky that they got the road name wrong on his PCN – so he got off on a technicality. Otherwise, he would have had to pay or appeal.

I don’t have much time for council snooping, and in situations like this then maybe Poole Council ought to exercise a little more discretion, since a lot of motorists must get away with stopping for the few seconds it takes to turn around when the camera car isn’t around. But if they don’t show discretion, they don’t, simple as that. And people have to live with it.

The local PCN rules are crystal clear and the ADI obviously didn’t know them as well he he thought he did. Whatever city you live in, you need to make sure you know what the local council will allow, and what it will stamp on. For example, some will let you use bus lanes to get past cars which are turning right, whereas others will fine you instantly for doing the same.

It isn’t illegal to stop at a bus stop – but the Highway Code says you shouldn’t. PCNs are civil and not criminal affairs, in any case. And for those people who only like to quote part of the Highway Code, here’s the bit they keep forgetting (note the highlighted part):

240

You MUST NOT stop or park on:

  • the carriageway or the hard shoulder of a motorway except in an emergency (see Rule 270)
  • a pedestrian crossing, including the area marked by the zig-zag lines (see Rule 191)
  • a clearway (see ‘Traffic signs’)
  • taxi bays as indicated by upright signs and markings
  • an urban clearway within its hours of operation, even when a broken white line is on your side of the road, except to pick up or set down passengers (see ‘Traffic signs’)
  • a road marked with double white lines, except to pick up or set down passengers
  • a tram or cycle lane during its period of operation
  • a cycle track
  • red lines, in the case of specially designated ‘red routes’, unless otherwise indicated by signs

Any vehicle may enter a bus lane to stop, load or unload where this is not prohibited (see Rule 141).

This whole affair is between this ADI and Poole Council (and it’s enforcement policies) – was the bus stop in question “restricted”? There is no single nationwide answer.

But you have to ask: where’s the bus going to go if it turns up and there is a learner arseing about in the bay?

An ADI ought be able to work that one out for themselves.